Ethiopia’s Diplomacy toward Sudan in the Dispute over the Nile River Water Flow

Abstract

The Nile River is a transboundary water resource of strategic importance for countries in East and North Africa. The development and management of water infrastructure, particularly concerning the regulation of the Nile River’s water discharge, have generated disputes among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. This dispute involves not only technical aspects of water management but also political dynamics, national interests, and the distribution of power at the regional level. This study aims to analyze the role of water diplomacy in managing the Nile water discharge dispute by employing realism as a school of thought to understand state behavior. The research adopts a qualitative approach based on document analysis of international agreements, reports from international organizations, and relevant academic literature. The findings indicate that water diplomacy serves as an important instrument for maintaining regional stability, yet its effectiveness is strongly shaped by diverging national interests and asymmetric power relations among the riparian states. From a realist perspective, cooperation in the Nile dispute remains fluid and conditional, as it can shift when core strategic interests are perceived to be threatened. Therefore, water diplomacy in the Nile River dispute reflects an ongoing tension between cooperation and competition, illustrating broader power dynamics within the regional international system.